Grain Comments
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Morning Grain Comments  10/01/13 6:51:24 AM





 



 

·         Market Trend—Corn, 1-2 Lower; Soybeans, Down 8-10; Wheat, 2-3 Lower





 

·         At the stroke of midnight, the U.S. government began a partial shutdown for the first time in 17 years putting as many as 800,000 Federal workers out of work today.  For the moment, however, investors have not added to Monday’s selling flurry with most indexes here and abroad posting a modest recovery.  Dow futures are currently up 50 points; the S&P is 7 higher; and the Nasdaq is up 12.5.  MSCI’s world equity index, tracking shares in 45 countries, gained about 0.2% in Europe.  The dollar did fall to an 8-month low against a basket of currencies.  Gold up $4 higher this morning while oil is up fractionally

·         T-storm Weather notes much of the central U.S. averages 7°F – 14°F warmer than usual through Friday-Saturday.  Areas of rain and t-storms slow wheat planting and harvesting within Thursday-Saturday as a storm system and cool front approach and pass, but at least five days of drying follow to limit wetness.  Areas of heavy rain are most likely in or near the northwest Corn Belt.  Although colder weather briefly follows the exit of rain, a killing freeze is not expected.  Temperatures remain cool over the next five days in Argentina, then fluctuate.  Although a few showers occur as temps fluctuate, high coverage of organized rainfall is unlikely.  Scattered t-storms occasionally occur & improve soil moisture for soybean planting as the rainy season begins in Brazil.

·         Dec Corn Dn $.015 at $4.40; Mar Corn Dn $.015 at $4.53.    

·         Nov Soybeans Dn $.10 at $12.7275; Jan SB Down $.1025 at $12.7475

·         Dec Wheat Dn $.025 at $6.76; Mar Wheat Dn $.025 at $6.76.
 

CORN/SORGHUM

·         December 2013 corn futures posted a contract low of $4.40 in overnight trading

·         ATI Research: Good/Excellent (G/E) corn ratings steady at 55% (vs. 25% last year), with national yield also unchanged at 156.8bpa.  Updated crop size estimate is 13.745Bbu—please share your yield results with your ATI broker

·         ATI Research: Unexpectedly high Sept. 1 corn stocks of 824mbu implies very low June-Aug feed/resid use of 225mbu

·         ATI Research: 12/13 corn carryout final at 824mbu with 13/14 ending stocks up 166 million to 2.031Bbu

·         Corn progress: Dent, 96% vs. 100% LY; 97% avg., mature, 63%; 93% LY; 70% avg., harvest, 12%; 52% LY; 25% avg.
 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: G/E soybean conditions improved 3 points to 53% (vs. 35% last year), national yield up 0.5 bpa to 42.2.  Updated crop size estimate is 3.197Bbu--please share your yield results with your ATI broker

·         Soybean progress: Dropping leaves, 67%, 83% LY, 74% avg., harvest, 11%; 39% LY; 20% avg.

·         ATI Research: Sept. 1 soybean stocks of 141mbu above avg. guess, USDA revises ‘12 U.S. crop up 19mbu to 3.034Bbu

·         ATI Research: 12/13 soybean carryout final at 141mbu with 13/14 ending stocks up 31 million to 177mbu

·         ATI Research: Sept. 1 all wheat stocks of 1.855bbu suggest potentially record large JJA feed/residual usage

·         ATI Research: 13/14 all wheat ending stocks lower 67 million bushels to 488mbu due to higher feed use, exports

·         Wheat progress: Spring harvest, 95% vs. 100% in ‘12, 96% avg., winter planting, 39%, 38% LY, 40% avg.
 

ENERGY

·         Energy markets are mixed:  QCLX13, -$0.05 to $102.30; QRBX, -0.0172; QNGX, +$.015 and QHOX, -$.0019

·         Cash ethanol markets were lower on Monday: Dallas and LA were 3 ½ cents lower; Tampa was off 4; Chicago was 15 cents lower; Gulf was down 8 cents; and NY was 12 ½ cents weaker at $2.32 ½ per gallon

·         RINs, lower: 2012’s fell 5 ¼ cents to 40-44; 2013’s dropped 4 ¾ to 42-45 and 2014’s were off 5 ¼ to 42-47

 
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